821
FXUS63 KGRB 181140
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
540 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING.
- WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. NO RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, AS THE RECORDS FOR TODAY'S DATE
ARE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILLS A LITTLE BELOW
ZERO.
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES THERE. BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW DURING EITHER
TIME PERIOD IS LESS THAN 10%. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO TREND
WARMER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MAY BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA TS OF 16-17C SHOULD HELP TO
PROMOTE THIS PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN OPTIMAL WHICH MAY
CONFINE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SNOW TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW SHORT-WAVE AND PERIOD OF WAA CROSSING THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW,
MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS CAUSING UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP MAY REACH THE
GROUND. NBM PROBS SHOW LESS THAN A 10% FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE AND WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO
-15 DEGREES. HOWEVER, CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT POINT TOWARD NEEDING
ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER MORNING. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
THIS WEEKEND AND 850 TEMPS WARM NEAR 0C EXPECT A TREND TOWARD WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. NBM PROBS SHOW A 30-40% CHANCE
FOR HIGHS ABOVE 40 DEGREES SUNDAY IN AND AROUND THE FOX VALLEY.
THOSE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE WARM UP WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS AS ICE START TO BREAK UP.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A RHI TO
IMT LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL COVER THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH
OF A RRL TO SUE LINE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-020>022-031-037>040-048>050-073-074.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018-019-
030-035-036-045.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......RDM
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