437
FXUS63 KGRB 191143
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
543 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 20S BY THURSDAY AND INTO
THE 30S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THEY DO, LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY BECOME FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA AND PERHAPS FOX VALLEY.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES, WITH
WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH SOME SUNSHINE AS
WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
PRECIP CHANCES...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY, HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRUGGLE TO BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WHICH MAY
INHIBIT ANY SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SECOND SHORT-WAVE WITH
A MORE MOIST AIR MASS THEN LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
FALL AS RAIN ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY, WHILE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NBM PROBS FOR 1" OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN WI HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20% FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND
AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. 805MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE 0C BY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. NBM PROBS SHOW A 20-40% FOR HIGHS ABOVE 40
DEGREES IN THE FOX VALLEY AND CENTRAL WI SUNDAY WITH HIGHER PROBS OF
50-70% ON MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWOODS.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WHEN THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE, WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY WEST OF A IMT TO DLL
LINE. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF A RHI TO MTW LINE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018>020-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......RDM
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