645
FXUS63 KGRB 200448
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS OVER DOOR COUNTY AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 20S BY THURSDAY AND INTO
THE 30S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY
REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WIND CHILLS
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES: WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION,
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING.
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MORE OF A NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION IS DEPICTED IN
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-EVENING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WI WHEN SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH COULD
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.
NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW CONTINUING. MINOR
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN VILAS
COUNTY.
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY EARLY THU
MORNING. THEN CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS: A WARMER NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATING ARCTIC AIRMASS. WIND CHILLS OF 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH
WILL NOT NECESSITATE ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT THE AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, FEATURING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
GREENLAND TO NORTHERN CANADA, WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND DEAMPLIFY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE MILD, PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO ANOMALOUS SYSTEMS INDICATED,
GENERALLY LOW IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED AND FORECAST CONCERNS
GENERALLY REVOLVE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
JET ENERGY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL THEN ARRIVE ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER
FAR NORTHERN WI. DESPITE SOME FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, SOUNDINGS DON'T
SEEM TO FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP, BUT THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD
WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER.
ANOTHER AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN RAPIDLY DIGS ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE DUE TO A 130 KT JET STREAK ALONG THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER. DYNAMICS LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE, SO IMPACTS COULD
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, FAR
NORTHERN WI HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WHEN MORE
SHORTWAVES ARRIVE IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS: AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
UNDERGO A WARMING TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ON FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 30S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA. SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LATE. SNOW MAINLY LOOKS
STEADY AND LIGHT, SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LOWER
VSBY AT GRB/MTW.
ON THURSDAY, MVFR CEILINGS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL EXPAND TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......JLA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page