571
FXUS63 KGRB 201812
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, CONVERGENCE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WERE
COMBINING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL AROUND
FIVE DEGREES COLDER THAN USUAL.
SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE
LAKESHORE AREAS ASSUMING THAT SKIES CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO WIND SHILLS WILL NOT BE TOO EXTREME.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY, BUT THE AIR TO THE SOUTH
IS QUITE COLD, SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN BY SUNDAY AS HIGHS WARM BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION...GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS JET ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, SHOW A DRY MIDDLE-LEVEL WEDGE, ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SO THINK SNOW WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WI.
A POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW (20-50%) LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE BEST CHANCE (20-
25%) FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
IMPACTS MAY BE SEE DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THE MORE ACTIVE PATTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO TURN INTO A WINTRY
MIX AT TIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE RETURN OF MILD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NBM PROBS SHOW A 40-70% FOR HIGHS IN
THE 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BROKEN STRATOCU DECK AND MVFR CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES WERE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANYWHERE THAT HAD CLOUD COVER. SUSPECT THAT
CLOUDS WON'T BE ABLE TO HOLD ON FOR LONG AS DRY CANADIAN AIR
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN
LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS
PERSISTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS FROM THE NORTH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MAKING IT TO DOWN TO GRB BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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