711
FXUS63 KGRB 202058
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
258 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHEN THERE IS AROUND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
RECEIVING ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCU DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ERODING AS DRY CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY REMNANT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
GRADUALLY CAME TO AN END OVER THE FAR NORTH AS DRY AIR WON OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S IN/AROUND THE FOX VALLEY.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RESULTING IN WINDOWS FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SUB-
ZERO LOWS THUS MAKE A COMEBACK TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT BAY.
LOW IMPACT FORECAST PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS AND SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH, ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION
OF ABNORMALLY COLD AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXISTING SNOW PACK
ENSURES THAT WE DON'T SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 20S, A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING US SOME MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT.
PRECIPITATION...
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING MOISTURE AND ANY SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
A FEW ALONG THE UPPER PENINSULA MAY STILL SEE A FLURRY OR TWO, BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SETUP ALONG THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION, SO SNOW WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST FOR MORE OF THE REGION. THAT SAID, AMOUNTS DO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH ONLY AREAS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN REACHING UP TO 30% CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, AS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN AT A PREMIUM DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...
A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A
SURGE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE (>70%) OF REACHING INTO
THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BROKEN STRATOCU DECK AND MVFR CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES WERE ONGOING ANYWHERE THAT HAD
CLOUD COVER. SUSPECT THAT CLOUDS WON'T BE ABLE TO HOLD ON FOR LONG
AS DRY CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PERSISTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MAKING IT TO DOWN TO GRB BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN/UHLMANN
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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