545
FXUS63 KGRB 211056
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
456 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHEN THERE IS AROUND A 15 TO 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
RECEIVING ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. IN FACT SUBZERO TEMPERATURES EXTEND ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
IMPORTANT, AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WE WILL HAVE TODAY WILL JUST
BRING UP THE COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SO TODAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY, DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE A STEADY
BREEZE. THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALL MUCH BELOW THE TEENS
IN MOST PLACES.
MILDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY, THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. NOT
A BAD DAY FOR OUTDOOR SPORTS SUCH AS ICE FISHING, SKATING, AND SKIING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST THE FIST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED COMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORT-
WAVE AND LEFT FRONT JET QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WI. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO STRUGGLE TO DEEPLY SATURATE WHICH DOES INCREASE THE
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE, HOWEVER,
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOW-LEVELS WHICH COULD LEAD TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. NBM PROBS SHOW LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR 1" OF SNOW
AND ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR 0.1" OF LIQUID PRECIP.
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO COME TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHEST (25-35%) POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, BUT THINK SNOW WOULD BE MORE FAVORED NORTH
WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK COMING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NBM PROBS REFLECT THIS AS
WELL WITH MUCH OF THE REGION HAVING A 20-25% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1"
OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES...A WARMER PACIFIC AIR MASS WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. NBM PROBS SHOW OVER A 70% CHANCE FOR HIGHS ABOVE 40 DEGREES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI WHERE PROBS DROP TO 30-40%.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, WITH MIDDLE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......RDM
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