718
FXUS63 KGRB 220854
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACTS WILL COME FROM ANY POTENTIAL
ICING CREATING SLIPPERY ROADS, BRIDGES, AND SIDEWALKS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
MILDER WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WEEKEND FOR WINTER SPORTS. MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER JET APPROACHES,
BUT THEY SHOULD EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT
AS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUDY, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS THANKS TO SOUTH WINDS. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF EACH
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE WARMER TEMPERATURES, 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT-
WAVES WORKING THROUGH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COME ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE WILL TRY TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS LOW-LEVELS WARM SNOW MAY TURN OVER
TO A WINTRY MIX WHICH MAY LEAD TO SCATTER AREAS OF MINOR ICING.
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER DISJOINTED WHICH IS KEEPING
POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVES IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
SPREAD IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL QPF
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
0.1" OF LIQUID. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST SYSTEM ANY ICING WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN IMPACTS WISE.
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER POSSIBLY
MORE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN 24-HOURS AGO. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MESSY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THINK MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
29 WITH A 20-25 CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1" ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
THE UNSETTLED PATTER DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIR MASS WILL MAKE SNOW MORE LIKELY, BUT THERE
IS STILL A LARGE ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES AT TIMES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWER BASES AS LOW AS
5000-6000 FT AGL WILL MOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI, INCLUDING THE RHI
TAF SITE, BUT WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS WHEN GUSTS ARE NOT
OCCURRING. A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......KRUK
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