283
FXUS63 KGRB 271717
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1217 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD BRING ICY TRAVEL
TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- A MIX CONSISTING OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTFUL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
THAT THE AREA BETWEEN WAUSAU AND IRON MOUNTAIN WILL SEE 0.25"
ICE ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER AN INCH,
AND 20-40% CHANCE OVER TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO
FAST FLOWS AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINES OF AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA
COULD BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL MID-MORNING. UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S NORTH, AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FROM 09Z-13Z PERIOD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, THUS PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER 13Z, SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATED
DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.
THE BIGGER QUESTION TONIGHT IS THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AFTER 12Z WHEN THE SUN IS UP. ALSO, THE METRO ROAD FORECAST
INDICATED SURFACE ROAD TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY FALL TO FREEZING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY JUST IN CASE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A FEW
HOURS.
ON FRIDAY, A SHARP WARM FRONT IS GOING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA. A FEW OF THE MODELS BRING THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE A FEW OF THEM KEEP IT TO THE SOUTH.
THE GFS/NAM WERE BOTH INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE FOX VALLEY/GREEN BAY WOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.
NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN AS SPRING TIME IS THE TIME OF YEAR
THE WARM FRONT CAN STRUGGLE MOVING NORTHWARD AS FAR THE MODELS
WOULD INDICATE. ON GOING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN A STABLE MARINE LAYER, AND NO REALLY
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE
60S AND 70S, WHILE NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S
AND 40S. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A 40+ KNOT 850MB
JET WILL OVERRIDE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT COULD BRING HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD NOT RULE OUT
LARGE HAIL OF AN INCH OR GREATER.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST, THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT.
WILL NEED WATCH AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND TO SEE IF THEY
FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALOFT, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID ALOFT
TO ONLY FREEZE ONCE REACHING THE GROUND. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A LULL OR BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND STORM TRACK THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
WHEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL AND HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD
ACCUMULATE. EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE THAT
THE AREA BETWEEN WAUSAU AND IRON MOUNTAIN WILL SEE 0.25" ICE
ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL, THERE IS A
50-80% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER AN INCH, AND 20-40%
CHANCE OVER TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO FAST FLOWS AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINES OF AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
BEYOND THIS STORM, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY BY 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000-8000 FT WILL LINGER BEHIND
OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH INTO IFR/LIFR RANGE. AS SATURATION DEEPENS BELOW
7000 FT, THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z. WITH DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASING, THE
PROBABILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR WILL INCREASE AFTER
09Z AS WELL.
AS DRIZZLE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 09Z, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 14-15Z AS
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE 40 DEGREES AND AIR TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING POTENTIAL ICING.
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC
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