130
FXUS63 KGRB 011126
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
626 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW,
ICING, GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. BE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM'S STORM TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM LOOKS TO TAKE AIM FOR THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY IN REVERSE ORDER OF THE STORM FROM THIS PAST
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH
CHANGING OVER THE PRECIPITATION FROM SNOW TO SLEET, TO FREEZING
RAIN, AND EVENTUALLY RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MN/IA BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING. FINALLY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PORTION OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
SNEAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA.
SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO ICE OCCURS, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE
TRANSITION WILL HAPPEN LATER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES,
WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ARE ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO THE
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THIS THRESHOLD ARE STILL LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BEAR WATCHING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THE ICE PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONE SILVER LINING WITH
THIS ROUND OF ICY PRECIPITATION IS THAT IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON
TOP OF ALREADY FALLEN SNOW, WHICH MAY LESSEN THE IMPACT THAN IF IT
FELL FIRST. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BOTH ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, IF AMOUNTS IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS INCREASE FURTHER, WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
THE RAIN PORTION OF THIS EVENT WILL HAVE ITS OWN ISSUES AS MUCH OF
THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE AREA
CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS MUCAPES RISE AS HIGH AS
500 TO 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD NUDGE NORTH
AND WEST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR CAN LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS, SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI, AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LREF UPPER-LEVEL MEAN
FLOW SHOWS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS SPLITTING WISCONSIN
THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOW-END POPS ON THE PERIPHERY OF EACH SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST DAYS WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
MID CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME E-SE AND GUST TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED, WITH
CEILINGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN MANY AREAS ONCE THE STEADIER
SNOWS ARRIVE. SNOW COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES AT AUW/CWA/RHI
LATE IN THE EVENING, WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO LIFR. LLWS WILL ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING, AS SE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO
35 TO 45 KTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
RIVERS CONTINUED TO RISE OR LEVEL OFF TODAY FROM THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE WISCONSIN RIVER HAVE
REACHED OR REMAINED IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WHILE MANY OTHERS IN
EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI SAT AT BANKFULL. WHILE THERE
WAS SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH SOME RIVERS LEVELING OFF, THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES. QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING
IN AREAS WHERE RIVERS ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPACTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-011>013-021-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ010-018>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ031-037.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI/GK
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
HYDROLOGY......KURIMSKI
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