547
FXUS63 KGRB 192321
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
621 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.75-1.00" FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME RIVER
RISES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
- THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY SURFACES.
- COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE TO START THE NEW WEEK, BUT A WARM UP IS ON
TAP BY WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN EAST WIND FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS AND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN INTO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 29 LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THE
RAIN ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 35-50
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET AND PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI LATE. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SHOW A 20-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 1+ INCHES OVER FAR NC WI, AND 10-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT ON LAKE MICHIGAN.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATING TREND INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN AND FOG WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS A SIGNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR TO LOW
MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING STRATUS DECK IS LOW, SO WILL
INCLUDE SCATTERED CLOUD GROUPS AT CWA/AUW/RHI, BUT ONLY PUT TEMPO
GROUP IN AT RHI FOR BROKEN CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOWER VSBY.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO 15-20 KTS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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