082
FXUS63 KGRB 221003
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL ON
FRIDAY, THEN MODERATING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: A BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA
WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS
THEY SHIFT INTO FAR NE WI, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
MN, MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY STAYING TO OUR SOUTHWEST/
SOUTH, SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THE WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL LIFT INTO UPPER MI BY MID-AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AND EDGE INTO
NC WI LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND AN INCH IN EASTERN WI DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, MODEST INSTABILITY (CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM) WILL BUILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG (45-60 KNOTS), SO ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST LATER IN THE
EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA LATE.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE, BUT OVERALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE WEAK. FARTHER NORTH, HAVE
REDUCED MODEL BLENDED POPS, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL CONCENSUS
IS FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SHORT-WAVE TOUGH MOVES THROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH WI TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH IL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS A
GOOD SETUP FOR GUSTY NE WINDS TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEST
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
SETTLE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP BOOST READINGS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
RECENT RAINFALL MAKES FOG DEVELOP LIKELY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. FRAMED OUT THE BEST TIMING FOR FOG AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT RHI, AUW, AND CWA.
ON TUESDAY, CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MN. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AND BECOME MVFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND AS LOW AS IFR
CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS COVERED BY PROB30 GROUPS. WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TAFS BUT A FEW
RUMBLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY, MAINLY AT
GRB, ATW, AND MTW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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