403  
FXUS63 KGRB 222312  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
612 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.  
 
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL ON  
FRIDAY, THEN MODERATING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH  
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX. TODAY'S RAIN HAS  
DEPARTED AS THE COINCIDING FORCING WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEAST.  
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE  
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO  
FOG FORMATION. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY, BUT LOCALLY DENSE  
AREAS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN  
LOW- LYING AREAS.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE FRONT, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF BROAD SCALE  
FORCING YET, MAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  
BY MID- AFTERNOON, FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 200-800 J/KG  
RANGE AND BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KTS. CAMS HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON  
THE COVERAGE, SHOWING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CAPE AND SHEAR, ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONG WINDS, BUT  
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE  
FRONT, ALONG WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET, AND  
AND SHORTWAVE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE FORECAST, SO WHILE  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY THUNDER, WILL GENERALLY BE LOOKING  
AT RAIN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE LIGHT TO  
MODERATE, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES,  
HIGHEST IN CENTRAL WI. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN IN  
CENTRAL WI IS AROUND 20-30%. THEREFORE, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE  
LOW.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHEAST GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE  
STRONGEST ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY AND MOST  
OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW  
DENSE/LOW VSBY WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE NBM INDICATES THE BEST  
CHANCE (40 PERCENT) FOR MVFR CIGS IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN  
WITH A 25% CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER  
PROBABILITIES WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS BUT LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT ONLY A  
FEW HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING  
AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE  
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE TOO  
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.  
 

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION.....KLJ  
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI  
 
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