848
FXUS63 KGRB 230348
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL ON
FRIDAY, THEN MODERATING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX. TODAY'S RAIN HAS
DEPARTED AS THE COINCIDING FORCING WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEAST.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FOG FORMATION. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY, BUT LOCALLY DENSE
AREAS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW- LYING AREAS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE FRONT, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF BROAD SCALE
FORCING YET, MAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
BY MID- AFTERNOON, FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 200-800 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KTS. CAMS HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON
THE COVERAGE, SHOWING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CAPE AND SHEAR, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONG WINDS, BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET, AND
AND SHORTWAVE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE FORECAST, SO WHILE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY THUNDER, WILL GENERALLY BE LOOKING
AT RAIN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES,
HIGHEST IN CENTRAL WI. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN IN
CENTRAL WI IS AROUND 20-30%. THEREFORE, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHEAST GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY AND MOST
OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS
STILL MIXED ON HOW DENSE/LOW VSBY WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NBM INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT)
FOR MVFR CIGS IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A 25% CHANCE
FOR IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL
PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TAFS BUT LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT ONLY A FEW HOURS OF IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(30-40%) ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, WILL INTRODUCE
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKESHORE AS MODELS
INDICATE THIS IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page