834
FXUS63 KGRB 240927
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING.
- RAIN INCREASES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OF
RAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FOX VALLEY, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST.
- NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
- WARM AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AIR HAD MOVED INTO NC WI, WHERE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL WI, AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
POISED TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSH-MTW. THE SHOWERS
WERE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, AND WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN 85-90 KT JET
STREAK. THE SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: AFTER THIS MORNING'S SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEPARTS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY, WHEN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI. HAVE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTHWEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE GRB AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONCENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE RAINFALL
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WAA, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND 850 MB FGEN MOVE
THROUGH, AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS N IL. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND SHOULD END BY
EVENING IN EASTERN WI. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWEST TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH WI
ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 5
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING S/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING IN THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES: HAVE RAISED TREMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY, IN
ANTICIPATION OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
SHOWERS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP BOOST READINGS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THUNDERSTORMS STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WI HAS WANED THIS
EVENING LEAVING QUIET VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND MOVE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, HOWEVER, PERIODIC
DROPS TO MVFR VSBY ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT
AT RHI WHERE THEY MAY BECOME MVFR THURSDAY NIGHT.
KGRB/KATW...THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT KGRB AND KATW
HAS ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WI WILL MOVE THROUGH KGRB AND KATW AROUND 6-7Z WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. DID FRAME OUT A CHANCE FOR -SHRA FROM
12/16Z THURSDAY MORNING IN A PROB30 GROUP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS RATHER LOW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IL, HOWEVER, RAIN MAY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS FRAMED OUT WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 01/06Z FRIDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......GK
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