978  
FXUS63 KGRB 101114  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY  
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND  
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES (20-35%) EACH AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE  
EXTREME CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  
 
- BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE  
NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY  
 
A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WHICH WILL PUMP VERY DRY AIR  
IN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN  
LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TREND HAS HELD TO DROP  
LOWER THAN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A  
CONCERN TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT WEST  
AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY WITH THE LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE  
SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY  
WILL BE COOLER; RANGING FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST,  
WITH AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS  
THE FIRE WEATHER PRONE AREAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 10 TO 15  
MPH. THEREFORE, NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT  
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS  
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH LOWS AROUND 40  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME PATCHY FROST IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OCONTO AND MARINETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT;  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST ADVISORY  
HEADLINES.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW  
SOME RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. WHILE THE  
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S WILL BE BENEFICIAL,  
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20 TO 30  
PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW  
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE  
COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS  
WILL PUSH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON  
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST  
WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S,  
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25% AND SOUTHERLY  
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL  
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIR FLOWING  
NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD BRING SOME HIGHER  
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, THUS LOWEST HUMIDITY  
READINGS SHOULD SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN MONDAY AND NOT AS CRITICAL.  
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, THUS CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW  
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN (AWAY FROM LAKE  
MICHIGAN). ANY CONVECTION WOULD END BY/AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY  
EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATED BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS  
THE AREA, THUS HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COMPARED TO TUESDAY.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FAIRLY DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40  
KNOTS WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1,000 J/KG BY THE  
TIME IT REACHES NORTHEAT WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
LINGER ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THEY WOULD OCCUR.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST BY  
MIDDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY, MAINLY AT THE  
EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI/ECKBERG  
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI  
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