978
FXUS63 KGRB 101114
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES (20-35%) EACH AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
EXTREME CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WHICH WILL PUMP VERY DRY AIR
IN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN
LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TREND HAS HELD TO DROP
LOWER THAN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT WEST
AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY WITH THE LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER; RANGING FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST,
WITH AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FIRE WEATHER PRONE AREAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 10 TO 15
MPH. THEREFORE, NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH LOWS AROUND 40
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OCONTO AND MARINETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
THE RIDGE WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. WHILE THE
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S WILL BE BENEFICIAL,
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PUSH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S,
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25% AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIR FLOWING
NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD BRING SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, THUS LOWEST HUMIDITY
READINGS SHOULD SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN MONDAY AND NOT AS CRITICAL.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THUS CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN (AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN). ANY CONVECTION WOULD END BY/AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATED BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA, THUS HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FAIRLY DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40
KNOTS WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1,000 J/KG BY THE
TIME IT REACHES NORTHEAT WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
LINGER ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THEY WOULD OCCUR.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST BY
MIDDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY, MAINLY AT THE
EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI/ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page