242
FXUS63 KGRB 112340
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- THERE MEDIUM CHANCE (20-30%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
- HIGHER CHANCE (50-75%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE LOWEST RHS,
HIGHEST TEMPS, AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WI
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT, IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOW
50S, AND THEN RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S, SO READINGS
WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO
STAY AWAY FROM DAILY RECORDS, BUT A FEW SITES COULD GET CLOSE
WHERE THE DAILY RECORD IS A LITTLE LOWER.
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME OUTER PIECES OF
ENERGY MAY ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
DURATION OF ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTERWARDS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
MUCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM.
LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND, BUT TEMPS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
SIMILAR AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, RH VALUES RANGING FROM TO 15 TO 30%, AND DRY
FUELS. THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S; WITH RH VALUES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS CONDITIONS STILL WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KOTENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...KLJ
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