242  
FXUS63 KGRB 112340  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY AND  
MONDAY DUE TO DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 
- THERE MEDIUM CHANCE (20-30%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.  
 
- HIGHER CHANCE (50-75%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY  
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE LOWEST RHS,  
HIGHEST TEMPS, AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WI  
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING,  
FOLLOWED BY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT, IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOW  
50S, AND THEN RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW AWAY  
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S, SO READINGS  
WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO  
STAY AWAY FROM DAILY RECORDS, BUT A FEW SITES COULD GET CLOSE  
WHERE THE DAILY RECORD IS A LITTLE LOWER.  
 
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.  
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME OUTER PIECES OF  
ENERGY MAY ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.  
DURATION OF ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.  
 
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTERWARDS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM  
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) WITH THIS  
SYSTEM, AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH  
MUCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES APPROACHING 8  
C/KM.  
 
LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND, BUT TEMPS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE  
FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025  
 
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.  
SIMILAR AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025  
 
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN  
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS, RH VALUES RANGING FROM TO 15 TO 30%, AND DRY  
FUELS. THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S; WITH RH VALUES  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY  
FUELS CONDITIONS STILL WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER  
WATCH.  
 

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-010>013-  
018-019.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION.....KLJ  
AVIATION.......KOTENBERG  
FIRE WEATHER...KLJ  
 
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