422
FXUS63 KGRB 121904
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
204 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY DUE TO
DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN NORTHERN WI UNTIL 9:00 PM.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN THE FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A
DAY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID-EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO EASILY START AND SPREAD QUICKLY. THERE
IS SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE FUELS ARE THE MOST DRY AND MINIMUM
RHS ARE IN THE 30-40% RANGE. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN,
OUTER CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL START TO
ROTATE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 200-600 J/KG TUESDAY, AND 200-800
J/KG ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED AND
NON- SEVERE. CAMS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
AS THE EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART, THIS ALLOWS FLOW
TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MUCAPES BUILDING TO 1000-3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL/GUIDANCE. DEEP SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS AND MID- LEVEL LAPSES
RATES OF AROUND 7.0-7.5 C/KM.
DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL ON/OFF RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY THIS POINT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S,
AND THEN RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S TOMORROW AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK FRONT WITH
READINGS AOB NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
SKY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, WITH LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING IN EAST-CENTRAL WI NEAR
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CREATE MVFR AND
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST- CENTRAL
WI TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
WEST (CENTRAL WI) MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.
WINDS...A FEW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH 9:00 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RANGED FROM 12 TO
22% FOR COUNTIES IN THIS AREA, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO IN THE LOW 80S.
FARTHER SOUTH, MAINTAIN SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE RHS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM RHS IN THE 30-40% RANGE. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17
MPH, AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GRB FORECAST AREA RHS ARE IN THE 40-60% RANGE AND CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ
FIRE WEATHER...KLJ
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