260
FXUS63 KGRB 120834
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES COULD REACH THE SURFACE AT
TIMES TODAY, WHICH MAY IMPACT AIR QUALITY.
- MAJORITY OF SHOWERS STAY SOUTH AND WEST TODAY, THEN SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
RISK LOOKS LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
WI. PROBABILITY OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IS 20-40 PERCENT, WHILE
PROBABILITY OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS NOW LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
A SURFACE FRONT WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE SMOKE WILL CAUSE
SOME HAZE AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, AS WELL AS AIR QUALITY
CONCERNS WITH AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE LOWER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH, WITH
LOWER 70S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND 60S EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE (80-90 PERCENT) WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT OUT OF OUR AREA AS THE
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE DURING THIS PERIOD FALLING TO 20-40
PERCENT AND THE CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
THEREFORE, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
SET OF MODEL RUNS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE 850 MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THE
MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER BY THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST DRIES
OUT A BIT FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE VERY EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN THEN FLATTENS OUT WITH A PARADE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRINGING A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF A KSTE TO
KMTW LINE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER LOOK
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE THERE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 23Z WED. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RANGE
FROM 20-30% FROM 23Z WED TO 06Z THU.
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION (5-6SM AT TIMES) WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO
AREAS OF SMOKE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MOST OF
THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT THOUGH.
WINDS WILL BECOME 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE EAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE AT MTW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
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