883
FXUS63 KGRB 121901
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
201 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
REMAINS 20 TO 40 PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF US-8.
- DRIER SATURDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP TO THE WEST ALONG AN
AXIS OF 700MB MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
EVENING THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH WITH
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ADDING TO LOW LEVEL
LIFT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE LIFT IS THE
STRONGEST, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF US-8 WHERE
PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE IS 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WESTERLY BUT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE RETURNS
SUNDAY, BUT LIFT IS MARGINAL WITH LIMITED POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION, HENCE ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS (50 TO 70 PERCENT) DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT IN
PLACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH 50S
AND 60S IN THE NORTH AND 70S TO THE SOUTH. AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY'LL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BETTER CHANCES
MOVE IN AFTER 00Z FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A GRB TO MFI LINE.
WITH THE RAIN EXPECT CEILING TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER REMAINS LOW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
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