790
FXUS63 KGRB 130736
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
(700-850MB) FRONTOGENESIS FROM ROUGHLY WAUSAU TO STURGEON BAY WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THIS BAND OF RAIN NORTH
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE HIGH (80-NEAR 100 PERCENT) GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH, WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT IF THERE IS ANY. MUCH OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY, WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES A BIT
MORE DIFFUSE AS RAIN CHANCES FALL TO 40-60 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS
APPROACHING A HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENETIC BANDS. ONCE AGAIN THE IMPACT FROM FLOODING SHOULD BE
LOW GIVEN THE HIGH FFG NUMBERS.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN OVERALL ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PATH FOR A PARADE
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS PAINT
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FINER DETAILS, INCLUDING TIME AND LOCATION FOR
EACH SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, DO NOT ANTICIPATE EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, BUT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS IS APPEARING SOMETIME MIDWEEK
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER
THE COMING DAYS, CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S, BUT THE
FORECAST RAINFALL MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM SEEING THESE
TEMPS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
GENERALLY SEEING VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY WHERE RAIN IS
STEADIEST. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL WORK ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO IMPACT THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL WI, THOUGH THIS
CHANCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS FROM CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN WI
(AUW/CWA/RHI). EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AROUND
10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
IFR CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL, WITH MVFR TO LOWER VFR ELSEWHERE.
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN
WI, INCLUDING AT RHI AS SHOWERS PREVAIL THERE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHERN WI.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS LOW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI/KRUK
AVIATION.......JLA
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