488
FXUS63 KGRB 131745
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
(700-850MB) FRONTOGENESIS FROM ROUGHLY WAUSAU TO STURGEON BAY WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THIS BAND OF RAIN NORTH
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE HIGH (80-NEAR 100 PERCENT) GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH, WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT IF THERE IS ANY. MUCH OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY, WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES A BIT
MORE DIFFUSE AS RAIN CHANCES FALL TO 40-60 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS
APPROACHING A HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENETIC BANDS. ONCE AGAIN THE IMPACT FROM FLOODING SHOULD BE
LOW GIVEN THE HIGH FFG NUMBERS.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN OVERALL ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PATH FOR A PARADE
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS PAINT
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FINER DETAILS, INCLUDING TIME AND LOCATION FOR
EACH SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, DO NOT ANTICIPATE EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, BUT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS IS APPEARING SOMETIME MIDWEEK
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER
THE COMING DAYS, CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S, BUT THE
FORECAST RAINFALL MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM SEEING THESE
TEMPS.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF FAR NE WI THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS COULD
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT
OCCURRING OVER NC WI. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD REMAINS LOW.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA (INCLUDING THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF SITES) THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AND SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS
FOR A WHILE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
GUSTY NE-E WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS C/EC WI THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS (NEAR 25 KTS) OCCURING IN THE FOX VALLEY.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI/KRUK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page