150
FXUS63 KGRB 140326
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1026 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WEST
AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS.
- STORMY PERIOD EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS STILL COVERED MOST OF NORTHERN WI
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. RAIN-COOLED AIR WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S NORTH, WHILE READINGS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND: EXPECT THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS TO EXIT FAR NE WI AS FORCING WEAKENS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE
NORTHWOODS WELL INTO THE EVENING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK WAA/FGEN ARRIVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY, AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS
THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PERSISTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS MODEST INSTABILITY ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS,
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
STORMY PERIOD EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK: THE CANADIAN
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BRING WARMER, MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW WI LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAY TRIGGER A ROUND OF STORMS, WHICH WOULD
THEN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EDGE EASTWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AS A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND A
SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, THIS PERIOD HAS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, AS A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM
CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, AS MODELS DIVERGE.
THIS WILL BE BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID PERIOD, AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
EXTENSIVE IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN (40-80% CHANCE). HOWEVER, EXACT PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW (<10%) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY, GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION...JM
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