272
FXUS63 KGRB 142040
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS.
- A WARM, HUMID AND STORMY PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MID
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AND AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM RRL/AUW/CWA
EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE
SUPPORTED BY H8 WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A FAIRLY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
THEY HAVE DRIFTED SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH, BUT CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED READINGS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO GENERALLY
WEAK FORCING. CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, AND CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE, AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ARRIVING THEN.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S IN NORTHERN WI, BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE
C/EC WI.
STORMY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MMUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK:
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BRING
WARMER, MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MN ON MONDAY, REACH NORTHWEST WI
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO GRB CWA ON TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL EDGE
EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD
PUSH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, THIS PERIOD HAS POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES MAY BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER WE SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
EVENT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EVEN MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS ARRIVES. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING, AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 4000-6000 J/KG, ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS TODAY,
WHILE EXTENSIVE IFR/MVFR STRATUS PERSISTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MFI TO EZS TO MNM. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WAS ONGOING AT
MIDDAY, CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM RRL TO AIG TO FAR NE WI. THESE
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY AND VFR FORECAST GOING FOR THE EASTERN
TAF SITES, WITH A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS DECK RETURNING DURING THE
EVENING.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO
THE EVENING, THEN PERHAPS INCREASE AGAIN IN PARTS OF NC/C WI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW (<10%)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH
POSSIBLE LIFR IN THE FAR NORTH DUE TO VERY LOW CEILINGS AND SOME
FOG. EXPECT MOST PLACES IN THE NORTH TO RETURN TO MVFR BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN VEER SOUTHEAST IN SOME AREAS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page