381
FXUS63 KGRB 012344
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WHICH WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, PRODUCING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY WEAKER UPPER SHORTWAVE. HODOGRAPHS SHOW
RELATIVELY SOME MODEST SPEED SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE
COLUMN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY ASSIST ANY
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CROSS THE REGION, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL STILL FOCUSED AROUND
CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
THIS MAY POSE A BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSING THE MAIN CONCERN FOLLOWED BY HAIL. A FEW MESO MODELS DO
SUSTAIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BUT WOULD EXPECT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT
A WARM, MUGGY, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT, DIURNAL HEATING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD, THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. IF THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING, STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO
25 KTS REMAINS A MITIGATING FACTOR. ACTIVE WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO
AGAIN DEPART THE REGION AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
A VERY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND LIES AHEAD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES COULD GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP WITH CLOUDS BASES
AROUND 5000-7000 FT AGL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REACH THE RHI TAF SITE, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN THEIR STRENGTH AS
THEY TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KRUK
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