483
FXUS63 KGRB 170859
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN IS AROUND 30-50% FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- A MUCH DRIER PATTERN IS SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON ACTIVE WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE MAY EVEN WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA AT TIMES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER. BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
AS THE WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARDS AGAIN, BUT MODELS HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...
RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING,
GETTING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK. FROM THERE, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARDS AS A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY
CONDITIONAL ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR
GETS EARLY ON AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE ARE ABLE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BETTER SHEAR
ARRIVES. THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES. IF THE FRONT DOES GET INTO THE
AREA AND WE GET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY RESERVOIR BY THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE, MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND, BUT SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN AND STORMS MAY LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
COOLER AND MORE DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND
30-50% OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, MAINLY IN
POTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AGAIN, IF THE FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF
PUSHING NORTHWARDS, WOULD EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE BUT GIVEN THE
LONGER DRY PERIOD BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOW.
REST OF THE FORECAST...
TUESDAY WILL HERALD A PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE DRY PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S DURING
THE WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DEVELOPING NE WINDS WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL FORM FOR A FEW HOURS WHEREVER CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXIST.
THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST PERSISTENT IN CENTRAL WI, WHERE IT
COULD LINGER UNTIL 13Z-14Z/SUN. PERHAPS THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT OR RISE TO VFR ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD ARRIVE
AT RHI EARLY TO MID MORNING, BUT IT MIGHT BE EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON BEFORE IT OCCURS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WI.
THE NE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
MAY CONSIDER ADDING SOME SHOWERS AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES LATE
SUNDAY EVENING, AS MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURN.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ022.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ040-050.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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