120
FXUS63 KGRB 171117
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN IS AROUND 30-50% FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- A MUCH DRIER PATTERN IS SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON ACTIVE WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE MAY EVEN WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA AT TIMES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER. BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
AS THE WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARDS AGAIN, BUT MODELS HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...
RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING,
GETTING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK. FROM THERE, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARDS AS A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY
CONDITIONAL ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR
GETS EARLY ON AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE ARE ABLE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BETTER SHEAR
ARRIVES. THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES. IF THE FRONT DOES GET INTO THE
AREA AND WE GET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY RESERVOIR BY THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE, MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND, BUT SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN AND STORMS MAY LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
COOLER AND MORE DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND
30-50% OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, MAINLY IN
POTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AGAIN, IF THE FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF
PUSHING NORTHWARDS, WOULD EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE BUT GIVEN THE
LONGER DRY PERIOD BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOW.
REST OF THE FORECAST...
TUESDAY WILL HERALD A PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE DRY PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S DURING
THE WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME MVFR CEILINGS
TO AUW AND CWA. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF THIS MORNING,
BRINGING GOOD VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS. FINALLY, SOME
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO KEPT
A PROB30 IN PLACE FOR THE START TIME NEAR THE END OF THE TAF, BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO PROGRESS TO TEMPO OR EVEN PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF TAF ISSUANCES AS THE ONSET OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR MONDAY
MORNING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MONDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ022.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ040-050.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
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