317
FXUS63 KGRB 200755
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE LAKESHORE. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
VERY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE
LAKESHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP THE REGION DRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. NWP MODELS ARE
NOT ALL THAT BULLISH ON QPF AMOUNTS AS THIS COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA, AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO STAY BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. A
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION AS DAYTIME HIGHS GO FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE IN DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
LIFR/IFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
PREVAILING OVER EASTERN WI. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MAINLY IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI, WHERE SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR LONGER.
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WORSE FLYING
CONDITIONS THAN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY, ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO
PERSIST EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY
AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LIKELY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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