215
FXUS63 KGRB 042050
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
350 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT (90% TO 100%
CHANCE).
- WINDS WILL GUST FROM 25 MPH TO NEAR 40 MPH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE BAY AND ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
- NEAR-RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NEAR 90 TO 100
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
WISCONSIN. WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED TO OUR NORTH, THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS IN
WISCONSIN. AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ALONG THE WI/MI BORDER. TIMING-
WISE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM OR SO, AND MAKE IT TO THE FOX VALLEY REGION
AROUND 10 PM OR SO.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA
BETWEEN 4AM AND 7AM FRIDAY AT THE LATEST. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER, WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ON/OFF THROUGHOUT MOST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 7 AM FRIDAY IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WILL BE MINIMAL-ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY,
PUTTING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND BRINGING SUNSHINE BACK INTO THE
AREA. FOR THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, THERE IS WIDESPREAD 20%
TO 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS NEXT WEEK TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...
ACCOMPANYING THE QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG (35-45 KTS) WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND STRONG CAA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE WINDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED--HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY REGION AND THE LAKESHORE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST... MEANING THERE MAY BE VERY
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO VEHICLES (ESPECIALLY HIGH-PROFILE ONES)
TRAVELING ON NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT,
LIKELY REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 06Z FRI TO 12Z FRI.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP TO IFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WI AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES... WITH MVFR ALONG
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN WI TAF SITES. BY 18Z FRI, ALL
SITES SHOULD HAVE RAISED A CATEGORY, WITH IFR GOING TO MVFR, AND
MVFR GOING TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES (35-40
KTS) TO OCCUR ON THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-FRIDAY MORNING TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING (1 AM TO 10 AM FRIDAY).
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE
WARNING AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SETTING
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY (9/5), AND SATURDAY (9/6).
HERE IS A LOOK THE CURRENT RECORDS AND FORECAST VALUES FOR GREEN
BAY, RHINELANDER, AND WAUSAU.
GREEN BAY
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 60F(1981) 57F
9/6 58F(1965) 61F
RHINELANDER
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 55F(2017) 50F
9/6 55F(1956) 56F
WAUSAU
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 57F(1956) 54F
9/6 56F(1965) 59F.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KOTENBERG
AVIATION.......KOTENBERG
MARINE.........KOTENBERG
CLIMATE........KOTENBERG
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