412
FXUS63 KGRB 051714
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1214 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND SATURDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCES IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
- BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO
35 MPH.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
PRECIPITATION TRENDS...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAINFALL EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END THIS MORNING AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WON'T SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY, EXCEPT IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
PUTTING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WI WHERE THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DEPARTS THE AREA, BRINGING RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER,
MOIST AIR. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WILL
COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE/RETURN FLOW AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BLUSTERY TODAY...THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS BROUGHT A
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI HAVE GUSTED THE HIGHEST (35-
40 MPH), WHERE MIXING INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OCCURRED. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST/WEST TODAY. THE CONTINUED CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND ADDED CAA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL...AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL SITES SET NEW RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS POTENTIALLY IN JEOPARDY
TODAY AND SATURDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
RECORDS. THE ADDITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE PERIODS
OF FROST DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. THE RETURN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE ALL OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
AND BRIEF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING AND PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY
SATURDAY AS BASES SLOWLY RISE, RISING THE LATEST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
WATERS, WITH SOME MARINE SITES REPORTING GALE FORCE GUSTS.
ANTICIPATE THE WINDOW FOR GALES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-MORNING,
THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. ALSO, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES AS
THE STRONG WINDS ARE BRINGING HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE. WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WATERSPOUT THIS
MORNING, THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF OUR WATERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
SETTING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY (9/5) AND SATURDAY
(9/6). HERE IS A LOOK THE CURRENT RECORDS AND FORECAST VALUES FOR
GREEN BAY, RHINELANDER, AND WAUSAU.
GREEN BAY
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 60F(1981) 58F
9/6 58F(1965) 60F
RHINELANDER
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 55F(2017) 50F
9/6 55F(1956) 56F
WAUSAU
DATE RECORD LOW MAX FORECAST HIGH
---- -------------- -------------
9/5 57F(1956) 54F
9/6 56F(1965) 58F.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
MARINE.........KRUK
CLIMATE........KRUK/BERSCH
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