778
FXUS63 KGRB 070303
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1003 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING NEXT WEEK,
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR THUNDER, THE CHANCE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS SBCAPE VALUES
ARE AT BEST 100 TO 200 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN A BIT LATER AS THE REGION WILL STILL BE IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT
WITH SOME VERY PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DIE
OFF. THEREFORE, ANY FROST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR A
HIGH IMPACT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY, SOME SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE FROST AND HIGHER IMPACT.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO
ADVECT IN AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODEST MUCAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARMER
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
PLAN ON SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU ESPECIALLY NORTH AND FAR
NORTHEAST, INCLUDING RHI AND POSSIBLY GRB AT TIMES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN WI,
THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY BRIEF GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR.
ON SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST OVER 15 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......JLA
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