113
FXUS63 KGRB 070854
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY-AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS MID-LATE WEEK.
- CHANCES (30-70%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY INTO MONDAY: PATCHY FROST AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/GROUND FOG
WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR QUIET EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS
INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER/SPRINKLE, OVER NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOOK FOR THE DAYTIME CU TO FADE IN THE
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FROST
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS A LITTLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI. MOST LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
30S, WITH SOME WARMER READINGS NEAR THE BAY/LAKE. THE HIGHEST HREF
PROBABILITIES OF <37 DEGREES (40-60%) ACROSS SHAWANO, MARATHON,
LINCOLN, LANGLADE AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR AREAS OF FROST WOULD DEVELOP, WITH A FROST
ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. AFTER A SUNNY START, LOOK FOR SOME
MAINLY MID-UPPER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG PUSH OF WAA ARRIVES (GOING FROM
3C TO 12C THROUGH THE DAY). THIS COULD KICK OFF A SPRINKLE OR
TWO, AS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE INDICATING, BUT THINKING THE DRIER
AIR SHOULD WIN OUT. THE WAA WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS
WELL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS RETURNS AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-70%) WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CONFINED THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX VALLEY WHERE MODEST
MUCAPES UP TO ~300 J/KG ARE FORECAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
REST OF THE WEEK: SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT/TROUGH IS, THEN MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
PLAN ON SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU ESPECIALLY NORTH AND FAR
NORTHEAST, INCLUDING RHI AND POSSIBLY GRB AT TIMES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN WI,
THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY BRIEF GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR.
ON SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST OVER 15 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....BERSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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