290
FXUS63 KGRB 071723
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY-AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS MID-LATE WEEK.
- CHANCES (30-70%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY INTO MONDAY: PATCHY FROST AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/GROUND FOG
WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR QUIET EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS
INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER/SPRINKLE, OVER NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOOK FOR THE DAYTIME CU TO FADE IN THE
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FROST
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS A LITTLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI. MOST LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
30S, WITH SOME WARMER READINGS NEAR THE BAY/LAKE. THE HIGHEST HREF
PROBABILITIES OF <37 DEGREES (40-60%) ACROSS SHAWANO, MARATHON,
LINCOLN, LANGLADE AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR AREAS OF FROST WOULD DEVELOP, WITH A FROST
ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. AFTER A SUNNY START, LOOK FOR SOME
MAINLY MID-UPPER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG PUSH OF WAA ARRIVES (GOING FROM
3C TO 12C THROUGH THE DAY). THIS COULD KICK OFF A SPRINKLE OR
TWO, AS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE INDICATING, BUT THINKING THE DRIER
AIR SHOULD WIN OUT. THE WAA WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS
WELL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS RETURNS AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-70%) WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CONFINED THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX VALLEY WHERE MODEST
MUCAPES UP TO ~300 J/KG ARE FORECAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
REST OF THE WEEK: SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT/TROUGH IS, THEN MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A DECK OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU CLOUDS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BASES GENERALLY 3-4K FT. ALTHOUGH SOME
BASES OF 2.5-3K FT ARE NOTED, THESE BASES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO ~15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....BERSCH
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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