364
FXUS63 KGRB 080404
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY-AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FROST
ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS MID-LATE WEEK.
- CHANCES (30-70%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS, EXPECTED ON THE BAY AND LAKE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET, PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE PLUMMET TONIGHT UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S;
THEREFORE, WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THE CAMS INDICATE SOME
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR, MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE.
THEREFORE, VIRGA IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FROM ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
CHANCES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS DYNAMICS AS IT WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY CLOCK IN AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT/TROUGH IS, THEN MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES; HOWEVER, TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NORTH. EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ANY CONDITION TO PREVAIL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THIS SET OF TAFS. AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS (080-120)
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING,
MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE BAY WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY EVENING ON LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY FROM 7 PM MONDAY THROUGH 1
PM ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON LAKE MICHIGAN
RUNS THROUGH AS LATE AS 10 PM ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER WAVES
WILL ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS FOR BEACHES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN, SO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>021-
030-031-073-074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ040-050.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......JLA
MARINE.........JLA
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