930
FXUS63 KGRB 100350
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL (20-40% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND GREEN BAY AREAS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY, THE RAIN HAS MADE A SLOW SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH, BUT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY SEE
MORE BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS THE SUSTAINING LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS, BUT KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS (20-40%) IN THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SIGNS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE WARM AIR. RAIN AMOUNTS UNDER THESE STORMS COULD STILL GET
TO A FEW TENTHS, BUT WILL BE HEAVILY LOCALIZED TO THE NORTHWOODS.
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FEATURE CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA, SCATTERED (30-50%)
SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
ALSO PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, SO KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE LESS CERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEPARTING THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING. THAT SAID, WEAK
SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND
LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREFORE, LEANED AWAY FROM A DRY FORECAST AND KEPT AT SOME LOW
POPS (20-30% CHANCE AT ANY ONE LOCATION) IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL. OVERALL, THE
BETTER PROBABILITY REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE AGAIN THERE ARE SIGNS OF MAYBE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, IF
ANYTHING DOES STAY ORGANIZED A LITTLE LONGER, A BRIEF SPRINKLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MOST OF FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP
AS THIS OCCURS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN
RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS PERSIST NEAR RHI,
THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES HAVE DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE
TAF. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT DOWN TO THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SITES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SUB-30. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND THE RAIN FOR AUW AND CWA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
OMITTED ANY PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY DENSE, ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR TO LIFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR RHI IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. FOG SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT BY
DAYBREAK, THOUGH LOW IFR STRATUS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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