972
FXUS63 KGRB 130854
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS END EARLY THIS MORNING.
- AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO
LATE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WERE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NOSE OF 25-30 KT LLJ WAS ONGOING JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH THE
FAR SW/S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY, BUT MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z-15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SIGNIFICANT CINH AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP TONIGHT, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS, SO AREAS OF FOG LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET. PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO RIDGES INTO NE WI. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES
DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EDGE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON MOST
DAYS. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/STRENGTH HAS
NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. LIMITED/NO INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THE
LIGHTNING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AS WELL. MOST MODELS CONTINUE
TO BACK OFF ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
TAF SITES, AS THE THREAT IS UNDER 15%. HOWEVER, WILL ADD A PROB30
AT AUW/CWA AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN/STORM. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z.
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, IMPACTING MTW AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
AFTER THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXITS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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