730
FXUS63 KGRB 140910
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOG TRENDS: THE FOG FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS HAS EXPANDED OVER NC/C WI, WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER, AND THIS HAS PREVENTED VSBYS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN MOST PLACES. IN FAR EASTERN WI, WHERE MANY AREAS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES, FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OR VSBYS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL SETTLE INTO THESE AREAS WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IN BETWEEN, FROM IMT-EZS-CLI, VSBYS HAVE
BEEN AT OR BELOW 1/4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND
MODEL VSBY FORECASTS, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI THROUGH 9 AM. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE. FOG
POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD (AND LOCALLY DENSE) FOG OVER FAR NORTHEAST
WI.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS: DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS,
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO RIDGES INTO NE WI. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SCATTERED, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING DURING
PEAK HEATING.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS: TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON TUESDAY. A POST-
FRONTAL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A PESKY, SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING IFR/LIFR AND SOME VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. SREF/HREF PROBABILITIES OF UNDER A
1/2SM VSBY IN THE 50-90% RANGE FROM THE FOX VALLEY NORTH AND
WESTWARD. SOME LAKE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED, WHICH WILL IMPACT MTW.
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING (BY ~15Z),
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY
AFTER 06Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO ~10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ012-013-
020>022-031-037>040-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......BERSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page