955
FXUS63 KGRB 141153
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
653 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOG TRENDS: THE FOG FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS HAS EXPANDED OVER NC/C WI, WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER, AND THIS HAS PREVENTED VSBYS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN MOST PLACES. IN FAR EASTERN WI, WHERE MANY AREAS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES, FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OR VSBYS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL SETTLE INTO THESE AREAS WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IN BETWEEN, FROM IMT-EZS-CLI, VSBYS HAVE
BEEN AT OR BELOW 1/4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND
MODEL VSBY FORECASTS, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI THROUGH 9 AM. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE. FOG
POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD (AND LOCALLY DENSE) FOG OVER FAR NORTHEAST
WI.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS: DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS,
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO RIDGES INTO NE WI. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SCATTERED, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING DURING
PEAK HEATING.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS: TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON TUESDAY. A POST-
FRONTAL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVERED THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ONLY PATCHY FOG IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 15Z, AND THE STRATUS LAYER IN THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY RISE THEN SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 15Z-17Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR
OVER FAR NE WI.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ012-013-
020>022-031-037>040-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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