684
FXUS63 KGRB 142354
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
654 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, WILL IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOG TRENDS...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FAR NORTHEAST WI WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE
CAUSED BY "TOO STRONG" OF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT BEING
SAID, ANTICIPATE FAR NORTHEAST WI WILL SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP, WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY OCCURRING IN OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN WI.
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI MAY SEE PATCHY FOG, BUT IT WILL LESS
LIKELY BE DENSE. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE
SAGS/SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY AND A 15-35% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE UP AND NORTHERN WI SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME,
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH
BECOMES CLEARER, LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THEY
WILL BE FAR FROM NEARING ANY RECORDS. WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS JUST A SMALL AREA OF DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS FADES
BY SUNSET. THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS NOT
AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/FOG, BUT
SREF/HREF PROBABILITIES OF 60-90% FOR VSBY UNDER A MILE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WI, BUT LOWER PROBABILITIES UNDER 40% AT THE TAF SITES.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT GRB/ATW, BUT WON'T
INCLUDE ANY LOWER VSBYS OR ANY LOW CIGS. HAVE INCLUDED LOWER VSBYS
AT RHI, WHERE GROUND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE FOG AT AUW/CWA AS PROBABILITIES ARE LOWEST IN THIS AREA,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FINALLY, A LITTLE PATCH OF FOG HAS BEEN SITTING ON LAKE MICHIGAN
JUST SOUTH OF KEWAUNEE MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA COULD EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY IMPACTING MTW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOG TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY 13-14Z MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS ON
MONDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
WINDS AT 1000 FT WILL BE 25-30 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......BERSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page