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FXUS63 KGRB 151746
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOG TRENDS: CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHEAST WI, AND NEAR THE BAY AND LAKESHORE,
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WERE LIGHTEST EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
SEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO 1/4SM, BUT GIVEN THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG, OPTED TO JUST ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z. FOG MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT, WITH MODELS FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON FAR NORTHEAST WI.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
RIDGES INTO NE WI. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER RIDGES FLATTENS AND A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A SE-NW ORIENTED
UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS: TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A POST-FRONTAL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE
AREA AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WI. AT
THIS TIME, MOVEMENT ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TO THE NORTH
VERSUS TO THE EAST SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM AT CWA/AUW. HOWEVER,
THOSE FLYING TO THE WEST INTO WESTERN WI WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
THIS CONVECTION IN THEIR PLANS. LIKE YESTERDAY, MINIMAL CU IS
EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM FAR
NORTHEAST WI TO THE LAKESHORE. GRB AND MTW ARE THE PRIMARY TAF
SITES THAT WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE THICKER AREAS OF FOG NOT ABATING UNTIL AFTER 14Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST OVER 15 KTS AT GRB AND ATW THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EATS-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN
5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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