817
FXUS63 KGRB 161156
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
656 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER LATE THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- PERIODIC RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A
20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH.
- WINDY PERIODS ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY, AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CLOUDS COVERED
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF GRB CWA, AND THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE MN/WI BORDER. THE
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BROAD AREA OF WAA, WHERE PWATS
WERE INCREASING TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN INTO MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. INITIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THIS MORNING, BUT INCREASING WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO TO MOST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAKENING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO NC/C WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND TO THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL HELP BOOST
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT-WAVE INDUCING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, POSSIBLY HEAVY IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE
AREAS, WHERE THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
1 INCH. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AS IT DEPARTS ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
INLAND, AND A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN.
RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. VFR CLOUDS (RANGING FROM 3500-7000
FT AGL) COVERED THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
APPROACHING CENTRAL WI. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WI WERE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE PARTS OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR LOW
CLOUDS MOVING TO FAR NORTHERN WI TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPS OVER NC/C WI TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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