402
FXUS63 KGRB 171721
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S. TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDY PERIODS ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY, AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25
TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER, WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WAS
STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS
1.25-1.50 INCHES). TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS (GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH) HELPING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE IN MANITOBA WILL TRACK INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NC/C WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI LATER TODAY, AND TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WITH A
POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT-WAVE INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THUS REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN
EASTERN WI, AND LOWERING THE PROBABILITIES FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL STILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND GUSTS OVER THE LAND AREAS SHOULD
STILL REACH 25 TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THOUGH THE MID TO LATE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AFTER A WARM START TODAY AND SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT, WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM S TO SW WINDS,
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHERE A MENTION FOR TSRA WAS RETAINED. GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS IN EASTERN WI HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
WILL END AROUND DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND GUSTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING SFC WINDS WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS, CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THROUGH. PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WI 09Z-14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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