583
FXUS63 KGRB 180833
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
333 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS END IN EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO
25 TO 35 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK, PWATS OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES AND MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
BY 12Z-13Z/SAT. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH EASTERN WI THIS MORNING. THE RESULTING SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S REGIONWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PHASE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH. WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP LATE TONIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST
GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY.
RAIN TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
THOUGH THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AFTER ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST DAY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SLOWLY SHIFTING/
EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDER IS STRUGGLING TO
MATERIALIZE DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE A FEW STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE UNDER 15% AT ANY ON
SITE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MAINLY MVFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND FOR A TIME NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PARTIAL
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.
GUSTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVERNIGHT DUE TO REDUCED SURFACE
MIXING, BUT A FEW COULD REACH ~15 KTS AT TIMES. THE THREAT FOR
LLWS WILL END AROUND 06Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A LOW-LEVEL
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT WILL LINGER AT MTW TO AROUND 08Z.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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