069
FXUS63 KGRB 181148
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS END IN EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO
25 TO 35 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK, PWATS OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES AND MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
BY 12Z-13Z/SAT. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH EASTERN WI THIS MORNING. THE RESULTING SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S REGIONWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PHASE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH. WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP LATE TONIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST
GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY.
RAIN TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
THOUGH THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AFTER ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST DAY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS HAD SHIFTED OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY ISSUANCE TIME, BUT
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT
BY AROUND 14Z, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE SW-W WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
JUST TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES REGIONWIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN WI LATE. NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WI, WHERE
GUSTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page