834
FXUS63 KGRB 181911
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
211 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING COOLER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT REBOUND LATE IN THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- WINDY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WI. WINDY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 70S AGAIN AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE STATE. WE WILL STAY DRY AND MILD
WELL INTO THE EVENING, EVEN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES WI. THIS
CHANGES LATE TONIGHT THOUGH AS A COUPLE OF VERY SHARP MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS, ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, PHASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
INDUCE RAPID, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS (MSLP NEAR 1000MB AT 00Z
DROPPING TO 990MB BY 12Z) ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EAST
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS
ESPECIALLY EASTERN WI, ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, EXCEPT
TOWARD 0.50 INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE WEST, REMOVED
FROM THE SFC LOW. WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT, WITH
NORTHWEST GUSTS 20-30 MPH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL WI, WHILE
GUSTS OF 30 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR
COUNTY AND FROM THE FOX VALLEY TO THE LAKESHORE. PEAK OF STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE 5 AM THROUGH 11 AM ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF
WINDS DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT, MAY SEE WIDESPREAD FROST.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND DYNAMIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD ALSO LOOKS BREEZY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL GET A BUMP, WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS LOW TO MID 60S. ONCE
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, TUESDAY LOOKS CHILLY, AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY
WE COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR TUESDAY NIGHT IN FAR
NORTHERN WI. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR.
REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
DECENT SIGNAL FOR A CHILLY NIGHT REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FROST. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, IT WILL BE DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. UPPER REACHES OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST
WE COULD BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S YET AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY
SPREAD IN FROM NORTHWEST WI TO NORTHERN WI (RHI) BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
REGIONWIDE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN WI LATE,
LASTING INTO MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WI WHERE
GUSTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 30 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA
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