111
FXUS63 KGRB 190828
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING COOLER TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS END IN EASTERN WI THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODIC
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WINDY TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH,
STRONGEST IN EASTERN WI. BLUSTERY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
PHASING UPPER TROUGHS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WERE COMBINING TO PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING, AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED
IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS EARLIER, BUT HAD SINCE
SHIFTED EAST, ALONG WITH THE POCKET OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING,
WITH MOST OF IT OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY,
WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HELPING TO
BOOST HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD FRONT AND
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. AN
UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN WI ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED RAINY WEATHER. CYCLONIC WNW FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT-
WAVES WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S). DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MID CLOUD DECK HAS TAKEN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT,
THOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR. LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT UP TO
ATW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR MTW THROUGH
AROUND 08Z AS INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EAST. RAIN IS THEN ON TRACK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY. VSBYS MAY
ALSO BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY WITHIN POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO
PROB30 GROUPS AS CAMS BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS IMPRESSED WITH
SHORTWAVE-DRIVEN PRECIP TO THE WEST.
WINDS RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN
CLOSER VICINITY TO THE LOW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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