777
FXUS63 KGRB 191941
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
. AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOX VALLEY WESTWARD.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND. MORE FROST LATE THIS WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS HEADING
INTO EASTERN CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS
SHIFTING EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AND
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. THE APPROACHING HIGH, LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW PWATS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW 33 IN
MUCH OF AREA ALREADY SIGNAL FROST TONIGHT, EXCEPT ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FROM THE FOX VALLEY
WESTWARD FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED YET.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, BREEZY
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN, AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
BOUNCE BACK ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS TO HOW QUICKLY RAIN ARRIVES OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL COME
FROM LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL
JET ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST
LEADS TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY EVENING. A LOW
CHANCE GIVEN MEAGER MUCAPE FORECAST, BUT NON-ZERO AS SOME SAY.
RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI.
RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
(50-80% CHANCE). EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN IT WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOLER AS HIGHS STAY IN THE 40S CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL, AND
BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 50S OVER EASTERN WI.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COOL, MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING NORTH-CENTRAL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES ELSEWHERE. LAST OF SHOWERS WILL
END ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST MIN
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK IN 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL EFFECTIVELY END WHAT
REMAINS OF THE GROWING SEASON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
STRATOCU WITH MVFR TO LOW VFR BASES IS EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN
WI AND WILL IMPACT RHI THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, PLAN ON VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU AND MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BE
ON THE INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WHICH
ARRIVES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SPREADS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER
20 KTS ARE LIKELY CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN THE AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>039-045-048-049-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA
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