654
FXUS63 KGRB 200351
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
. AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOX VALLEY WESTWARD.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND. MORE FROST LATE THIS WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS HEADING
INTO EASTERN CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS
SHIFTING EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AND
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. THE APPROACHING HIGH, LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW PWATS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW 33 IN
MUCH OF AREA ALREADY SIGNAL FROST TONIGHT, EXCEPT ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FROM THE FOX VALLEY
WESTWARD FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED YET.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, BREEZY
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN, AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
BOUNCE BACK ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS TO HOW QUICKLY RAIN ARRIVES OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL COME
FROM LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL
JET ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST
LEADS TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY EVENING. A LOW
CHANCE GIVEN MEAGER MUCAPE FORECAST, BUT NON-ZERO AS SOME SAY.
RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI.
RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
(50-80% CHANCE). EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN IT WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOLER AS HIGHS STAY IN THE 40S CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL, AND
BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 50S OVER EASTERN WI.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COOL, MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING NORTH-CENTRAL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES ELSEWHERE. LAST OF SHOWERS WILL
END ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST MIN
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK IN 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL EFFECTIVELY END WHAT
REMAINS OF THE GROWING SEASON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF MONDAY. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING, THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, IMPACTING THE TAF SITES MAINLY
BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. SOME MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
INCREASE IN THE MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KTS BY LATE MORNING,
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST MONDAY EVENING AND BE A LITTLE
LESS GUSTY, BUT GUSTS TO ~20 KTS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>039-045-048-049-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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