240
FXUS63 KGRB 131755
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1155 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE, THEY HAVE REFRAINED FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING, RESULTING IN READINGS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FORECAST LOWS. OTHERWISE, A PLEASANT NOVEMBER DAY IS IN STORE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES... SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BROUGHT ON BY DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF WAA INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH AROUND 13 TO 15C ON
SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS PEAK IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. WE MAY BE ABLE TO APPROACH RECORD HIGH TERRITORY DURING
THIS TIME, THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRECEDING COLD FROPA
WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN OBTAINING RECORD HIGH MINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURE RANGE. POST-
FRONTAL HIGHS THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SUNDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP OVER WISCONSIN.
PRECIP CHANCES... LOW-IMPACT PRECIP FORECAST PERSISTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REGULATE OUR WEATHER. NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN, THOUGH MINIMAL, LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A STRONG YET MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE HOLED UP
ABOVE 850 MB, SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO
SPRINKLE-Y IN NATURE. ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE EVOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN COMES
INTO QUESTION. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A GREENLAND HIGH WITH A
CLOSED-OFF LOW OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH THE LATTER BEING THE
DRIVER OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AS IT STANDS NOW,
MOST ENSEMBLES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF) DEPICT THE BRUNT
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS, AS ANY SHIFT
NORTH WOULD BRING US INTO THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY SITS
IN A D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT STATUS, WHICH COULD BE EXACERBATED
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NOT
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THEN, SKIES CLEAR AGAIN.
SW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 15 KTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OBS OF THIS OCCURRING HAVE BEEN LIMITED, SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BACKING TO THE S AND THEN SE LATE TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN
AVIATION.......KLJ
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