404
FXUS63 KGRB 132150
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
350 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOW 60S
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY, AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP
WEATHER LOW IMPACT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THESE TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE, THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING,
BUT WILL ALSO START TO GET WARM AIR ADVECTION. STAYED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S, BUT MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS IF THERE ARE MORE/LESS CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME PLACES IN CENTRAL INTO EAST-
CENTRAL WI POSSIBLY REACHING 60. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 20-45%
CHANCE OF REACHING 60 IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES...PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, 850MB
TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR 15C SATURDAY MORNING (06Z-12Z) BEFORE DROPPING
TO 6C TO 9C SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY TO -4C TO -8C
BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S ON
SATURDAY, WITH UP TO A 45% CHANCE OF 60 OR HIGHER IN EAST-CENTRAL
WI, WHERE THE FRONT ARRIVES LAST. HIGHS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE SATURDAY'S RECORD HIGHS
ARE SAFE, RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING MAY BE AT RISK, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE
SATURDAY EVENING TEMPERATURE DROP. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
WIND...FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AS POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ MPH THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. FAR
NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN WI HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE (UP TO
35%) OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
POSSIBLY SEEING ONLY SPRINKLES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM A SYSTEM PASSING OVER IA/IL. THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD SEE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING FOR A MORE DRY
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ANTICIPATED
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN, DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NOT
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THEN, SKIES CLEAR AGAIN.
SW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 15 KTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OBS OF THIS OCCURRING HAVE BEEN LIMITED, SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BACKING TO THE S AND THEN SE LATE TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ/KRUK
AVIATION.......KLJ
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