303
FXUS63 KGRB 150008
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN (UP TO 35%) TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE MINIMAL OR NOTHING GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OVER IA/IL/MO. THE
NORTHERN PRECIP SHIELD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS (DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES) ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIP/SYSTEM. IF THE NORTHERN SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX, OTHERWISE,
THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
TRAILING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THAT BEING SAID, TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, LIKELY OCCURRING AROUND
MIDDAY, WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL (NBM
PROBS UP TO 50%) FOR A FEW SPOTS IN EAST-CENTRAL WI SEEING 60 OR
LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WINDS...FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS POST-
FRONTAL CAA AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS SURFACE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ MPH THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL CROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CROSSES, A FEW HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS (VFR CIGS AND VSBY) MAY OCCUR. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR SEEING MUCH RAIN. PROB30 GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR THE
RAIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE WEST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO 010-015
AGL ATOP LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING
LLWS, LASTING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
EXPECT NW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......JLA
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